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quarta-feira, julho 25, 2012

How do you say "moral hazard" in Spanish ?


(em português abaixo) 
For a country which boasts of having the "World's Best Bank 2012", Santander, 
according to no less an authority thna Euromoney, it makes you wonder why Spain is now being pressured by the European financial press to bailout ALL its banks with sovereign guarantees for ALL investors. 

Why should the Spanish and European taxpayers bailout the investors and creditors and shareholders who made bad invesments in Spanish banks? 
Why not just bailout or guarantee LOCAL RETAIL DEPOSITORS and let the rest of the ( so-called professional) investment managers take their lumps? 

Short selling is just the retrenchment phase of the "hot money tsunamis" that can steam-roll all but the biggest countries. The problem with short selling is not that it's too bad, but that it's TOO MUCH, in this age of program-trading and no capital controls. 

Iceland or Ireland, which one is the real model of "best practices" in bubble-to-crash financial crisis management?




Para um país que se orgulha de ter o "Melhor Banco do Mundo 2012", Santander, de acordo com não menos  autoridade que a  revista Euromoney, leva-nos a questiona  por que a Espanha está agora sendo pressionado pela imprensa financeira europeia para resgatar TODOS os seus bancos, outorgando garantias soberanas para todos os investidores.
O mercado parece exigir que os contribuintes espanhois e europeus venham safar os investidores, credores e acionistas que fizeram maus investimentos  em bancos espanhóis?
Por que não apenas socorrer ou garantir os  pequenos depositantes LOCAIS e deixar que  o resto dos gestores de investimentos (os chamados profissionais )  sofram as suas perdas?

A venda a descoberto  "short selling" é apenas a fase de esvaziamento dos tsunamis de"hot money" ,    que podem cilindrar os países, fora  os maiores. O problema com as vendas a descoberto não é serem MÁS,  é que é simplesmente MUITAS,  nesta era  do program-trading e sem controles de capitais.

Islândia ou a Irlanda, qual é o verdadeiro modelo de "boas práticas" na gestão de crises financeiras, da bolha ao colapso? 

4 comentários:

  1. o rei vai nu... é este tipo de afirmações e ideias que os grandes investidores tentam a todo o custo que se espalhem - a luta deles é que as bolhas especulativas que criaram sejam agora cheias com o dinheiro dos outros, estão a rapar todo o dinheiro para encher a sua bolha.

    Mas não há dinheiro que chegue.. ou surge uma pessoa providencial, como nos EUA nos anos 30, ou em breve isto começa tudo a desabar pelo topo... penso eu... estou só à espera do estoiro dos 2 maiores bancos europeus...

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  2. Lucro do Santander cai 51% devido à exposição ao sector imobiliário

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  3. Just asking:
    Would an exit from the Euro, by itself, really help Greece to become more competive and sustainable, or increase its ability to repay?
    Why should Spanish and European taxpayers provide funds for the Spanish sovereign to bail out bank shareholders and cross-border wholesale investors who lent too much?
    Why is the ECB (and European taxpayers) willing to fund macro bailout schemes which allow repayment of wholesale cross-border funding, without any real burden sharing with the creditors, but are not willing to "...include an EMU-wide deposit guarantee scheme (DGS) that could protect local retail depositors against redenomination risk", which would might really help ... to stem the deposit flow out of periphery country banks" ?

    One answer:
    Perhaps the pressure for an Ireland-style solution is because the original excessive cross-border lending was much more concentrated in German, French an British banks, and this long period of "default that dare not speak its name" avoided a creditor stand-still and allowed a mutualization of credit exposures to the ECB and other collective official creditors". Forget who's in or out of the Single Currency, just look at who's really got how much Value at Risk and their relative market power, and influence in the financial press media.
    If overleveraged borrowers can't pay what's coming due this month, this year, or even this decade, let the overextended creditors restructure the unsustainable debt for 20+ years, and call it a default while you are at it so you can get some payout from those nice CDS credit insurance policies.

    - Restructure external wholesale cross-border debt NOW, including official credits
    - Protect local retail depositors from bank and redenominatation risk with an Europe-wide deposit insurance guarantee NOW

    Mariana Abrantes de Sousa

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  4. Irish banking 700% of GDPsegunda-feira, 05 novembro, 2012

    A bad act to follow:
    Irish state was ultimately forced to spend 43% of GDP, €67 bln to recapitalize its banks

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