2022-02 Here are some initial thoughts on the current threat from totalitarian Russia.
Open SmartNews and read "Last surviving Nuremberg Trials prosecutor says Vladimir Putin should be 'behind bars'" SEE https://share.smartnews.com/3s4Wv
SEE https://share.smartnews.com/mcpPM
Yes, Putin's actions of invading Ukraine are criminal and he could be put on trial for WAR crimes against humanity. ...but WHO will "put the bell on the bear"? and most importantly
...WHEN will anyone get to him behind the fortress of hyper Russian nationalism?
Putin’s latest invasion proved, again, that Russia’s neighbors really do need protection from the Russian “crushing bear hug”. “Buffer states” from Finland to Turkey will need to rethink their defensive positions.
But all of Western EUROPE will have to ramp up its own defenses and create a new sort of “Berlin wall” against the multi-faceted and unpredictable (and unpredicted) threat from Russia and other neighbors and so-called partners. The hybrid war with both old tactics and new cyber attacks will continue, and these can reach a lot further than most missiles.
Europe cannot rely on NATO which may be WEAKER than it seems, because the US will try to stay “aloft” and try to avoid Amaerican casualties on the ground. Note that Putin is using old-fashioned ground war tactics such as tanks and sieges.
Yes, Putin may be defeated IN THE END, but Ukraine can be destroyed in the very long IN BETWEEN. The UKRAINE is being steamrolled now and many, if not most of the Ukrainian refugees of 2022 may never go back as the continuing threat of the "crushing bear hug” of Russian totalitarians will be too high. Ukrainians seem to be suffering a sort of "ethnic cleansing" from their own country.
Ukrainians will not feel safe for decades, even after Putin is gone, because Putin is not alone. The Russian people may NOT turn aginst Putin any time soon. Even the "peaceful" Russians living outside of Russia may be aligned with Putin.
Putin and the Russian military have crushed a neighbor before in Chechenia ....
"In 1999, Vladimir Putin ordered the complete destruction of the Chechen capital of Grozny. The Russian military laid waste to Grozny, killing tens of thousands of civilians. In Putin's own words, his troops "fulfilled their task to the end."
SEE https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/02/putin-grozny-chechen-ukraine-russia-military-past
Kissinger's article from 2014 is being reread. It emphasized the historical connection between the Russia and Ukraine, to justify that NATO should NOT include Ukraine. SEE https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/02/putin-grozny-chechen-ukraine-russia-military-past
Kissinger geopolitical reasoning may have missed the point about democratic freedoms. NO, historical, geographic, and cultural proximity in the past does not justify occupation in the future. Independence from a totalitarian neighbor is about freedom in the future, and about getting away from past "fraternal" takeovers and occupations.
Portugal and Spain share centuries of history and similar cultures, but Portugal has fought several wars of independence from Spain over 10 centuries. Portugal and Spain have lived with their backs turned (de costas voltadas) for very important reasons.
Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
2022-03-06 (day 11 of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine)
