While reeling from economic
austerity packages which pack an ever bigger punch, the Portuguese must continue to “mind
the gap”created by historic excessive consumption.
Considerando que as medidas de austeridade cada vez mais
severas vão deixando os portugueses cambaleantes e desorientados, convinha
recordar a origem fundamental da crise: o Consumo excessivo que se mantém acima de
86,4% do PIB, um nível francamente insustentável quando comparado com a média
da Eurozone (a 17) de 78,9%.
Já não se chamam PECs, Programas de Estabilidade e
Crescimento, os pacotes de medidas anunciadas periodicamente pelo Governo, mas
nem por isso pesam menos no bolso dos portugueses. De Março 2010 a Março 2011, o Governo Socialista
foi anunciando pacotes de medidas económicas, do PEC I ao PEC IV, que apesar de tímidos levaram à
mudança politica e à entrada da nova coligação PSD/CDS para o Governo, depois
das eleições de Junho 2011.
Desde então, o agravamento da crise económica portuguesa vem-se
contando pelas visitas trimestrais da Troika, desde a assinatura em Maio 2011d o
Memorando de Entendimento com o FMI, o ECB e a EC, pelo Governo cessante, mas
com apoio multipartidário.
A actual visita, a Troika V, coincide com as más notícias do
desempenho orçamental do primeiro semestre de 2012, o que levou o Governo a
anunciar o pacote da desgraça, que vai eliminar, provavelmente de uma vez para
sempre, cerca de 7% do rendimento de quase todos os portugueses.
Enquanto se discutem as consequências económicas e políticas,
seria bom ponderar se estas medidas serão ainda suficientes para eliminar o
diferencial do Consumo/PIB entre Portugal e os seus parceiros, ou se será
necessário continuar a apertar o cinto até reduzirmos o C/PIB para abaixo dos
80%. Esta é a meta verdadeira ainda que
inconfessada.
E os constitucionalistas, da rua do Século a Karlsruhe,
poderiam bem reflectir mais sobre a (in)constitucionalidade das causas do excesso de
crédito e do sobreendividamento, do que das suas consequências.
Pelos menos, podemos dizer que Portugal está no bom caminho,
já que reduziu o diferencial excessivo de Consumo/PIB de 10 p.p. em 2007 para 7,5 p.p. em 2011. Entretanto, a Grécia viu o seu indicador de Consumo/PIB
agravar de 90,7% para 92,9%, uma divergência claramente insustentável. A Espanha também agravou o Consumo, mas apenas de 76,7% para
78,5% do PIB . A Irlanda continua bem
abaixo da média, com um Consumo/PIB que reduziu de 69,8% para 67,9%.
A Estonia, que é apontada como o com o exemplo de boa gestão económica pelo Vice Chancellor alemão, reduziu o consumo para apenas 70% do PIB.
A Estonia, que é apontada como o com o exemplo de boa gestão económica pelo Vice Chancellor alemão, reduziu o consumo para apenas 70% do PIB.
Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
PPP Lusofonia
9-Sept-2012
O Consumo/PIB em Portugal e na Grécia continua em níveis insustentáveis, bem acima da média simples dos outros países europeus.
ResponderEliminarSe fizessemos uma comparação com a média ponderada (pelo próprio PIB), via-se ainda melhor como estamos ainda desalinhados.
Por isso o aperto de cinto vai ter que ser ainda mais forte e permanente.
O prego com a cabeça de fora é o que leva mais
While reeling from economic austerity packages which pack an ever bigger punch, Portuguese citizens must continue to “mind the gap”created by historic excessive consumption.
ResponderEliminarConsidering that the increasingly stringent austerity measures are leaving the Portuguese wobbly and disoriented, it is fitting to recall the fundamental source of the crisis: the excessive consumption that remains above 86.4% of GDP, a level frankly unsustainable when compared with the Eurozone (17) average of 78.9%.
The packages are no longer called PECs, Stability and Growth Programs, but they weigh no less in the pockets of the Portuguese. From March 2010 to March 2011, the Socialist government was announcing one package of measures after another, the PEC I to PEC IV, which though timid in retrospect nevertheless led to political change and the entry of new PSD / CDS to the government after the June 2011 elections.
Since then, the worsening economic crisis can be tracked by the quarterly visits by the Troika, since the signing in May 2011 of the Memorandum of Understanding with the IMF, ECB and EC, by the outgoing government, but with multiparty support.
The current visit, the Troika V, coincides with bad news regarding budget performance for the first half of 2012, prompting the government to announce anotherdrastic package, that will eliminate, about 7% of annual income of almost all the Portuguese.
As commentators discuss the economic and political consequences, it would be good to consider whether these measures will still be sufficient to eliminate the gap in the ratio of Consumption/GDP which separates Portugal from its partners. Otherwise, it might be necessary to continue to tighten belts in order to reduce this crtical ratio Consumption/GDP ratio to below 80%. This must be the true even if unspoken target.
And the constitutionalists, from Lisbon to Karlsruhe, might well reflect more about the (un)constitutionality of the causes of the credit and debt excesses, than than of the consequences such as the bailouts required.
At least we can say that Portugal is on the right track, as it reduced excessive differential of Consumption/GDP from 10 percentage points in 2007 to 7.5 pp in 2011. Meanwhile, Greece saw its indicator of consumption / GDP aggravate from 90.7% to 92.9%, a difference clearly unsustainable. Spain also increased consumption, but only from 76.7% to 78.5% of GDP, still near the average. Ireland remains well below average, with a Consumption/GDP ratio which decreased from 69.8% to 67.9% in the period.
Meanwhile, Estonia, which is heralded as an example of good economic management by German Vice Chancellor Rösler, reduced also consumption to just 70% of GDP.
Constitutionalists, from Lisbon to Karlsruhe, might well reflect more about the (un)constitutionality of the causes of the credit and debt excesses, than of the consequences such as the bailouts and wage cuts required.
ResponderEliminarWhere were the constitutional courts when the cross-border credit bubble was forming, when banks were leveraging up to lend more and more?
If the creditors kept their wallets zipped up, borrowers would not gotten so far into debt and we might not have had a crisis at all.
I absolutely agree with your comments. Perhaps the enormous drop in new car sales is a beginning.
ResponderEliminarI am sure that the drop in consumption will happen one way or the other because no one is prepared to finance it any more. The issue is probably more political than economic. Who will push through such a programme and who will support it?
We are in uncharted policy territory indeed.
ResponderEliminarWhat is a country to do when it needs to boost domestic savings and cut Consumption/GDP from 86% to a more sustainable 76%? What if it can't devalue, can't impose import tariffs, can't increase interest rates, can't subsidize exports, and cumulative tax increases are driving away both labor and capital?
Cutting wage costs may promise to increase export competitiveness somewhat, but it is no panacea.
Nowadays, productivity gains and export performance have a lot more to do international marketing and multinational supply chain management than with relative unit labor costs. In the current credit contraction, competitiveness also depends on the availability of pre-export finance, though, sadly, the ECB has not yet gone into the trade finance business.
When VW Autoeuropa and Peugeot Citroen suspend production in Portugal, you can be sure that decision was not made either in Palmela or Mangualde.