Ver comentários do Conselho Consultivo sobre a execução orçamental em Portugal no que vai de 2012
We do NEED a turning point in the Eurozone, because the current divergent trends are unsustainable, and not at all surprising.
Everyoney follows the news of yawning periphery budget deficts, as the recessions shrink tax revenues and inflate budget spending on unemployment benefits and other safety nets. But the real news is the "surprising" German budget surplus of 0,6% of GDP in first semester, all of €8.3 billion of it, the first since 2007-2008. This represents an annual "forecast error" equivalent to €19 billion, considering the -0,5% German deficit budgeted for the whole of 2012.
By contrast, Portugal's valiant efforts to cut Government staff costs, by 16,1% from €5,9 billion to €4,9 billion in the first semester of 2012, were insufficient in the cushion the impact of falling tax revenues.
When it comes to missing budget targets, the "unexpected" German budget surplus is the critical "man bites dog" news, Eurozone edition, and it augurs nothing good for the Eurozone.
With such divergence of fortunes, even the apparent "winners" will certainly become losers.
Sources: spiegel.de, economico, usnews.de
Testing the Limits of Divergence in the Eurozone
A German budget surplus, the first since 2007, when Europe badly needs a stimulus for rebalancing the intra-Eurozone trade accounts is simply shameful, and continues to test the practical limits of divergence within the single currency and the single market.
ResponderEliminarEven if the distressed net borrowers were doing all the right things, if they were able to implement all the draconian austerity measures and structural reforms in one fell swoop, which is politcally impossible with double-digit unemployment, they could not guarantee the desired results of rebalancing their budget and external accounts immediately, as long as the net creditors continue to increase their surplus. Small midget economies with their policy arms tied behind their back (no FX policy, no monetary policy, no capital controls, no trade policy) cannot do ALL the heavy lifting required for intra-Eurozone adjustment and trade convergence.
And it remains to be seen whether achieving a budget surplus, with a corresponding boost to the external surplus, is good even for Germany itself, or whether it will prove to be something of pyrrhic victory, as the net creditors are required to absorb losses on the excessive cross-border debt.
With the continuing and widening divergence of fortunes among the Eurozone trading partners, net importers appear to have NO hope of ever reducing their external debt, so it is the net creditors who will really need bailout, sooner rather than later.
Europe's largest economy, it seems, is losing its immunity to Europe's debt problems.
ResponderEliminarGermany's export orders fell sharply in August.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-export-orders-fall-in-august-in-sign-of-economic-slowdown-a-853614.html
Portugal is not far behind Greece in terms of trouble.
ResponderEliminarOne single KPI key performance indicator tells the worse story: the ratio of Consumption (private and government) to total GDP.
For Greece, C/GDP rose from 90,7% in 2007 to 92,9% in 2011 which is unsustainable and getting worse.
For Portugal, C/GDP fell very slightly from 86,9% in 2007 to 86,4%, still unsustainable, but improving.
The problem is that the simple average for the 17 Eurozone countries, C/GDP increased a bit, but only from 76,9% in 2007 to 78,9% in 2011.
This means that Portugal and Greece are consuming proportionately 7,5% and 14% than the average of our other trading partners.
Disastrous.
If we don’t cut consumption and increase savings ourselves, our creditors will do it for us.
Fonte: Eurstat