quinta-feira, outubro 22, 2015

China devaluation blocks adjustment in trade flows

The Economist (10-Oc-15)  has shifted from talking about QE quantitative easing to worrying about QT quantitative tighteninng.

But talking about the decline in the "vast stockpile of FX reserves" without analyzing the unsustainable trade and current account imbalances is like looking at localized floods and droughts without studying  shifting rain patterns.  

That's why they call it "liquidity".

The real focus of analyses and policy discussions should be on why CAB current account imbalances are allowed to grow so enormously large, from -10% to  over +10% of GDP?

 And why the required cross country trade adjustments are so ineffective as surplus countries rush to step up their export "vendor financing" or to devalue their still undervalued currencies at early signs of slowing import demand, thus shifting more of the burden of adjustment to their already distressed deficit trading partners ?

Currency devaluation and world trade
China trade surplus widens
Comércio e desvalorização
Se o Pai Natal fosse chinês