Desafios da gestão de finanças públicas em tempo de crise

“A GESTÃO FINANCEIRA PÚBLICA E A CRISE”.

O Tribunal de Contas de Portugal em colaboração com o IDEFF e a Associação FONDAFIP promove, na próxima 2ª feira, dia 20 de Junho, na Culturgest, um Colóquio Internacional  com o tema: “A GESTÃO FINANCEIRA PÚBLICA E A CRISE”.

por Tribunal de Contas a Quarta-feira, 15 de Junho de 2011 às 14:17

Contamos com nomes tão importantes quanto:

GUILHERME d’OLIVEIRA MARTINS, Presidente do Tribunal de Contas de Portugal

MICHEL BOUVIER, Professor da Universidade de Paris I Phanthéon-Sorbonne, Presidente da FONDAFIP

DIDIER MIGAUD, Primeiro Presidente do Tribunal de Contas francês 

JOSÉ DA SILVA LOPES, Economista, antigo Ministro das Finanças

EDUARDO PAZ FERREIRA, Professor da Universidade de Lisboa, Presidente do IDEFF

VITOR BENTO, Presidente da SIBS, ex-Presidente do IGCP

JOSÉ ANTÓNIO DE AZEVEDO PEREIRA, Diretor-Geral dos Impostos

JEAN-MARC FÉNET, Director-Geral Adjunto de Finanças, da Direção- -Geral de Finanças Públicas

JOÃO AMARAL TOMAZ, ex-Secretário de Estado dos Assuntos Fiscais

JEAN-LUC ALBERT, Professor da Universidade Jean Moulin Lyon 3

MANUEL HENRIQUE DE FREITAS PEREIRA, Conselheiro jubilado do Tribunal de Contas, Professor Catedrático convidado do ISEG

LUIS MORAIS, Professor da Universidade de Lisboa, Vice-Presidente do IDEFF

JOSÉ REIS, Professor e Diretor da Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra

CARLOS MORAIS ANTUNES, Vice-Presidente do Tribunal de Contas

STÉPHANE THÉBAULT, Conferencista da Universidade de Bourgogne e Secretário- -Geral Adjunto da FONDAFIP

ALBERTO SOARES, Presidente do IGCP

PHILIPPE AUBERGER, Membro do Conselho Geral do Banco de França e Antigo Relator Geral do Orçamento da Assembleia Nacional

JORGE MIRANDA, Professor da Faculdade de Direito da Universidade de Lisboa

BENOÎT JEAN-ANTOINE, Doutor em Direito, Investigador na Universidade de Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, Encarregado de Missão da FONDAFIP

MARIE-CHRISTINE ESCLASSAN, Professora da Universidade de Paris I Phanthéon-Sorbonne; Diretora da Revue Française de Finances Publique

MICHEL SAPIN, Deputado, Antigo Ministro da Economia e das Finanças

PAULO MOTA PINTO, Professor, Presidente da Comissão Parlamentar de Orçamento e Finanças

GUILLAUME GAUBERT, Chefe do Serviço, Diretor Adjunto do Orçamento

CHARLES COPPOLANI, Chefe do Serviço de Controlo geral, económico e financeiro

PAULO MACEDO, ex-Director-Geral dos Impostos

ALAIN LAMBERT, Conselheiro do Tribunal de Contas francês, Antigo Senador e Ministro do Orçamento

JEAN-FRANÇOIS BERNICOT, Conselheiro do Tribunal de Contas francês

Banks, Central Banks and Moral Hazard in the Eurozone Debt Crisis

As intermediaries between net exporters and net importers, banks are naturally in the front line of any Debt Crisis, be it households (subprime mortages), corporates (junk bonds) or sovereigns.

The difference this time, comparing the Eurozone  problems to earlier Latin American Debt crises for example, is that there has been no creditor stand-still. Thus the original commercial investors have used their political and market power to push their riskier exposures onto official creditors, to the ECB through bank refinancing and secondary market bond purchases and to Central Banks through the TARGET system, and thus to their respective taxpayers. These new ECB and Central Bank exposures to the net borrrowing countries are a direct reflection of the need to  finance the net exports of the net surplus countries and to repay existing debt.

This “nationalization” of the intra-Eurozone cross-border exposure has certainly increased the burden for European taxpayers but has yet to provide any real debt relief to the net borrowers in Greece and Portugal. There has been no real "burden sharing" between creditors and borrowers.

Since the Euro taxpayers are being asked to bear the costs of excessive lending, a better solution would be to use such taxpayer funds to provide interest rate subsidies to bridge the gap between the returns required by real cash investors and the interest rates that would be sustainable from the perspective of the borrowers, but only for truly long term direct exposure (20+ years).

Lowering the interest bill is an essential step in debt workout, together through the reprofiling of  the repayment schedules of  existing debt.  Debt  discounts  could also help to reduce the debt stock, at great reputation costs and loss of market access, but it would do little to reduce the new debt need.  Registered Credit Default Swap volumes are miniscule (only about 1% of external debt in the case of Greece, so CDS pricing is almost a curiosity. 

In addition, if is to survive, the Eurozone needs to develop new balance-of-payments adjustment instruments.   Argentina and Mexico tried, unsucessfully, to keep their exchange rates fixed, but none of these  countries are good examples for the current Eurozone problems, because they all devalued in the end. For someone with dollars, the shopping was great on Calle Florida after an exchange rate storm.

There seem to be no case studies yet of successful external adjustments within a Single Market or Single Currency context.  Thus, the IMF needs to reinvent the wheel on bailouts, or better yet, find a sextant, because we are sailing into uncharted policy territory. When dealing with intra-Eurozone balance-of-payments adjustments, the usual IMF prescriptions (devaluation, tariffs, interest rate increases, capital controls) must now stay in the drawer.

It must be evident to all that  small-country fiscal and incomes policies cannot be expected do ALL the heavy lifting needed for rebalancing the Eurozone.  

Another clear lesson thus far is that the Single Currency requires maintainging Current Account deficits/surpluses much lower, because it does away with most of the usual adjustment tools.

We also know that existing creditors, net exporters and their banks, will always use their considerable political and market power to  resist absorbing a "fair share" any of the sacrifices for their imprudent lending decisions.  The excessive sovereign debt levels are themselves a clear example of the failure of market discipline.  Fully protecting existing creditors from "sharing the sacrifice" in the name of "applying market-based solutions" would further contribute to  "moral hazards" of  new and untold proportions.

Mariana ABRANTES de Sousa 

PPP Lusofonia
PORTUGAL

See also
One-armed midgets can't guarantee Eurozone rebalancing 
Greece and Portugal reduce Current Account CAB deficits
There is no virgin debt, there's always bilateral responsability for trade deficits
Adjustment effort to focus on blance of payments
Soluções para a crise do sobre-endividamento 
DeGrauwe on Euro and Financial Crisis, 1998
Stockholm principles and best practices in public debt management 
Proposal for Debt Reduction without Default 

Gaming Maastricht:  Capping official budget deficits, which reflect internal imbalances, is proves worse than useless if current account external imbalances are allowed to balloon on the back of overly easy cross-border credit and hot money capital flows.  

Portugal Current Account improves

Portugal improved its Current Account deficit to - €2,910 million in the first quarter of 2011,  28,6% less than in the year earlier period.  Most of the improvement occurred in merchandise and services, but transfers also increased, including transfers of €200 million from the EU. Exports reached 73% of imports in the period, compared to only 68% a year earlier and 63% in 2009.  Portual has a chronic trade defice, (especially with Spain and Germany, its main trading partners), including - €3.1 million of net agricultural imports in 2010.  

Portugal major exports are: clothing and footwear, machinery, chemicals, cork and paper products, hides, tungsten and wine. Portugal imports mostly machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, petroleum, textiles and agricultural products. European Union is by far its largest trading partner accounting for about 72% of total trade.  

Portugal's recent xternal performance compares well with that of Greece,  which also reduced its Current Account deficit by -24,3% to - €7,300 million in the first quarter of this year.  

In the first 4 months of 2011, Portugal's Current Account Deficit continued well below (-24,9)% the levels of 2010.   The reducation of  €1.294 million was due primarly to improvevments of €366 million  in the trade balance and  €415 million increase in service exports, but also due to increasing incoming transfers. 

Fonte:  http://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/Estatisticas/PublicacoesEstatisticas/BolEstatistico/Publicacoes/C.pdf
Comércio Externo e Crescimento da Economia Portuguesa, 2004 http://www.fep.up.pt/investigacao/workingpapers/04.05.06_WP146_Afonso%20e%20Aguiar.pdf
Comércio internacional Abril 2011  http://economiafinancas.com/tag/estatisticas-do-comercio-internacional/
GPEARI http://www.gpeari.min-financas.pt/analise-economica/estatisticas/nota-do-comercio-externo


Portugal adjustment program:      http://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/OBancoeoEurosistema/ProgramaApoioEconomicoFinanceiro/Paginas/default.aspx

Primeiros nos sacrifícios

À PRESIDENCIA DO CONSELHO DE MINISTROS                                   

Paço de Belém, 29 de Janeiro de 1892                                                                                                       

                                                                                                      

Meu caro Dias Ferreira, 
               

Querendo eu, e toda a família real, ser os primeiros nos sacrifícios extraordinários que as circumstancias do thesouro impõem à nação, previno-o de que resolvemos ceder20 por cento da nossa dotação, emquanto durar a terrível e dolorosa crise, que actualmente atravessâmos. 
Creia, Dias Ferreira, que em  tudo e por tudo hei-de seguir a sorte da nação, à qual reputo essencialmente ligados os meus destinos e os da minha dynastia.                  
                       

Seu affeiçoado,
EL-REI (D. Carlos de Portugal)                                                                                           

Com quase nove séculos de história, Portugal já superou numerosas crises, em boa parte graças às 
"virtudes de nobreza rara" como esta postura de El Rei D. Carlos face à crise financeira de 1892. 
Em 1892, o país sofreu um bancarrota parcial no seguimento da implantação da República no Brasil em 1889.  
O que deveria merecer bastante reflexão, é que, passados 120 anos, um regicídio, várias revoluções,  numerosos governos mais ou menos democráticos, e incontáveis Ministros das Finanças, Portugal se volte a encontrar na condição lamentável de pedir novos empréstimos para pagar juros sobre a dívida antiga e para financiar o défice comercial, incluindo os 60% dos alimentos que consumimos.  

Certificação de qualidade, produtividade e competitividade, 14-Junho, Funchal

Seminário “Aumentar a Produtividade através de um Sistema de Gestão”, organizado pela APCER

Início

14/06/2011 - 09:00

Término

14/06/2011 - 12:30

Local

Auditório Museu de Electricidade "Casa da Luz" - Funchal

Seminário “Aumentar a Produtividade através de um Sistema de Gestão”, organizado pela APCER, com a participação de:

- José Leitão, CEO APCER
- Isabel Rodrigues, Directora Regional, Direcção Regional do Comércio Indústria e Energia
- Hélder Estradas, Coordenador Sénior APCER
- Nigel Croft, Chairman ISO/TC176/SC2 – Quality Systems

Para consultar o programa, por favor clique aqui

Para efectuar a inscrição no referido evento utilize o e-mail: eventos@apcer.pt

APCER - Associação Portuguesa de Certificação
Tel.: 229 993 600 | 213 616 430 | 291 235 140
www.apcer.pt - info@apcer.pt

The Portuguese Economy: The elusive source of Portugal's depression: privatizations?

The Portuguese Economy: The elusive source of Portugal's depression: privatizations?

There is quite a lot of material regarding capture of the Regulator, caputure of the the State in procurement transactions and more recently "capture of the Concedent".
In the case of PPP contracts with low traffic usage,which have contributed to the reduction of overall investment productivity, it is evident that strategic behaviour by concessionaires may have lead to renegotiations that are quite onerous and unsustainable for the Concedent.
Availability PPPs and renegoations with changes in risk allocations are an integral part of the "low productivity / high debt" problem in Portugal, certainly not a part of the solution.
Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
See Game Theory and PPPs and PPP Agency and sustainability in PPP Lusfonia blog http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.com/2011/03/agencia-das-ppps-e-sustentabilidade.html 

Portugal wakes up to cost of private-public financing

Portugal wakes up to cost of private-public financing AFP Sun May 29 2011 08:35:25 GMT+0400 (Arabian Standard Time) Oman Time Portugal: Debt-ridden Portugal has made great strides since joining the European Union in 1986, building infrastructure with private money which critics say is becoming dangerously expensive. Between 1990 and 2009, 2,600 kilometres (1,600 miles) of roads and motorways were built using private-public partnerships (PPP), a financing technique now under close scrutiny in Portugal. The United Kingdom led the way, relying heavily on PPP financing in the 1990s. Such partnerships associate the state with private investors which take on the execution and financing of building public infrastructure in exchange for a concession to operate it, generally lasting 30 years. In so doing, the state avoids the immediate cost of an expensive investment and a private company gains access to a new market. Portugal, a relatively backward European country 30 years ago, turned to this method to launch construction of the giant Vasco de Gama bridge in Lisbon in 1992. It has since relied heavily, some now say too heavily, on these partnerships to build roads, railways and hospitals as part of its rush to modernise and raise competitiveness. Figures in the 2011 budget law showed that PPPs have cost the taxpayer 842 million euros (1.18 billion dollars), with the amount expected to reach 1.2 billion euros by 2018. "The problem with Portugal is that there are too many," said economist Jose Manuel Viegas, professor at Lisbon's High Institute of Technology. "Portugal is by far the European country that has turned to the partnerships the most." A recent report by the finance ministry said that Portugal had committed itself to 86 public-private partnerships in 2009 with 57 in operation, 17 under construction and 12 out to tender. "These partnerships have allowed successive governments to realise major investments without impacting the state budget," Carlos Moreno, a former public auditor, said in a book 'How the State Spends our Money.' "But this method is reaching a crisis point," he warned. Last month, the European Union and International Monetary Fund mission which was negotiating terms for a debt rescue, asked the Socialist Government to include three PPPs in its 2010 accounts, increasing the public deficit from 8.6 percent of gross domestic product to 9.1 percent, three times the eurozone ceiling. The mission has also required that Portugal freeze any new partnerships until an audit of the 20 biggest ones is completed. This has been applauded by the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), Portugal's main opposition party, which is campaigning heavily on the theme in the run-up to snap legislative elections on June 5.

Source: http://www.timesofoman.com/innercat.asp?cat=&detail=45544&sec=news See also the "iceberg" of hidden PPP-realted Goverment liabilities  http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.com/2011/05/midgets-cant-guarantee-intra-eurozone.html

PPP measures in the MOU Memorandum of Understanding with IMF/EU/ECB

Ref:   Public Private Partnerships

The Government [of Portugal] will:

3.1.      Avoid engaging in any new PPP agreement before the completion of the reviews on existing PPPs and the legal and institutional reforms proposed (see below).  [Ongoing]

3.2.      Perform with the technical assistance from EC and the IMF, an initial assessment of at least the 20 most significant PPP contracts, including the major Estradas de Portugal PPPs, covering a wide range of sectors. [Q3-2011]

3.3.      The Government will recruit a top tier international accounting firm to undertake  a more detailed study of PPPs in consultation with INE and the Ministry of Finance. The review will identify and, where practicable, quantify major contingent liabilities and any related amounts that may be payable by the Government . It will assess the probability of any payments by Government in relation to the contingent liabilities and quantify such amounts. The study will assess the feasibility to renegotiate any PPP or concession contract to reduce the Government financial obligations. All PPPs and concession contracts will be available for these reviews. [Q4-2011]

3.4.      Put in place a strengthened legal and institutional framework, within the Ministry of Finance, for assessing fiscal risks ex-ante of engaging into PPP, concessions and other public investments, as well as for monitoring their execution. The Court of Auditors (Tribunal de Contas) must be informed of this ex-ante risk assessment.  Technical assistance may be provided if necessary. [Q1-2012]

3.5.      Enhance the annual PPP and concessions report prepared by the Ministry of Finance in July with a comprehensive assessment of the fiscal risks stemming from PPPs and concessions. The report will provide information and analysis at sectoral level. 
The annual review of PPPs and concessions should be accompanied by an analysis of credit flows channelled to PPPs through banks (loans and securities other than shares) by industry and an impact assessment on credit allocation and crowding out effects. This particular element should be done in liaison with the Bank of Portugal. [Q2-2012] 


- Include PPPs in the monthly reporting of commitments and arrears of Public Administration (Q3-2012) 
- Ensure full implementation of the Budgetary Framework Law, including art. 31 (Q3-2011) 

Especialista rural para Guiné-Bissau

FWC Lot 1 Guiné Bissau: " Evaluation finale des programmes et appui à la révision de l'orientation stratégique du secteur développement rural". Buscamos perito junior (42 WD). 

Inicio 14/08/2011

Perfil requisitado:
- Diplôme universitaire dans le domaine du développement rural ou qualification similaire dans le domaine de l'environnement (de préférence BAC+5 ou équivalent).
- Expérience d'au moins 3 ans dans l’évaluation, identification et/ou mise en œuvre des programmes de développement rural et dans l’élaboration des politiques de développement rural.
- Planification et développement rural institutionnel,
- Economie du secteur développement rural,
- Analyse et évaluation financière des programmes,
- Connaissance de la situation économique et sociale de la Guinée Bissau, des problématiques de développement et de lutte contre la pauvreté.
- Français : excellent (écrit et parlé); Portugais: bonnes connaissances (écrit et parlé).


Candidatos qualificados e interessados podem enviar o seu CV para: 
dalmeida@transtec.be  ou joaomartins@cesoci.pt 

Forum PMEs em Africa, 6-7 Junho em Lisboa, antes da Reunião do BAD

Antes reunião do Banco Africano de Desenvolvimento em Lisboa, vai realizar-se o Forum PMEs BAD-EMRC que tem como objectivo promover e mobilizar apoios para Pequenas e Médias Empresas em África, "the missing middle".  
As empresas participantes podem também  agendar reuniões individuais B2B  e mostrar os seus productos e serviços no  Market Place que decorre de 6-10 de Junho.  


Fórum PME's BAD-EMRC e reuniões B2B 
Datas:    Segunda e terça-feira, 6-7 Junho 2011 
Local: Lisbon Congress Center, Praça das Indústrias 1300 - 307 Lisboa

Contacto:  EMRC 2011
Idit Miller, VP & Managing Director (email: im@emrc.be)
Samuel Pulido, Project Manager (email: sp@emrc.be)

6-Junho-2011

09h15 Sessão Plenária 1: Análise da situação do Missing Middle em África

Thorsten Beck, Professor, European Centre for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Holanda

09h45 Sessão Plenária 2: O papel dos Bancos Comerciais na resposta à lacuna de financiamento

Moderador: Peer Stein,  International Finance Corporation (IFC, World Bank Group)

Clive Tasker, CEO, Standard Bank, África do Sul

Fabian Kasi, Managing Director  Centenary Bank, Uganda

Tony Okpanachi, Managing Director, Cluster Head EAC, Ecobank, Quénia

Prince Amoabeng, Managing Director, UT Bank, Ghana*

11h30 Sessão Plenária 3: Soluções Inovadoras para responder às necessidades financeiras 

das PMEs

Moderador:  Chris West, Director, Shell Foundation (speaking for GroFin Africa Fund)

Dennis DiDonna, Director, Entrepreneurial Finance Labs, Harvard University, EUA

Paul Lamontagne, CEO, Enablis Entrepreneurial  Network, Canadá

Navin Kumar Maini, Director Small Industry Development Bank of India (SIDBI),  India*

Jurie Willemse, Managing Director, GroFin, Ilhas Maurícias

12h45 Almoço de Networking 

13h45 Sessão Plenária 4: Comércio Intercontinental e investimentos através de parcerias com 

PMEs

Moderador:   Arthur Levi,  Consultant, EMRC(antigo IFC), Bélgica

Diogo Araújo, CEO, SOFID (Sociedade para o Financiamento do Desenvolvimento,)Portugal

Cheikh Diarra,  Africa ChairmanMiddle East & Africa, Microsoft Corporation

Patricia Francis, Director Executivo, ITC (International Trade Centre), Suíça

Moussa Sidibé, Chefe de programa, CampusFrança,  França

Pierre Carpentier, Investment Officer, Investisseur & Partenaire pour le Développement, 

França

Sessão Plenária 5: O papel e actividades do BAD e dos seus parceiros no apoio do 

“Missing Middle”

Moderador:  Arthur Levi,  Consultant  EMRC (Antigo IFC), Bélgica

Robert Zegers, Coordinator SME Financing, Private Sector Activity, AfDB, Tunísia

Pietro Calice, Task Manager, Africa Guarantee Fund (AGF), AfDB, Tunísi

....Programa integral   http://www.emrc.be/documents/document/20110510103914-afdb_emrc_prog-pt.pdf
.... Reunião do BAD http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.com/2011/04/banco-africano-de-desenvolvimento-reune.html

EMRC is an international non-profit organisation whose mission is to promote sustainable economic development in Africa through the growing of business partnerships with a specific focus on economic and trade relations with the private sector.

Portugal explicado ao finlandeses

Aristides de Sousa Mendes, salvou mais pessoas que Oskar Schindler.

from youtube

No video feito pela Câmara Municipal de Cascais "O que os finlandeses precisam de saber sobre Portugal?".

No final da Conferências do Estoril - 2011, o Presidente da Câmara de Cascais, Dr. Carlos Carreiras, apresentou os portugueses aos finlandeses.

Lopussa Estoril Conference - 2011, kaupunginjohtaja, Dr. Carlos Carreiras esitteli Portugalin suomalaisille.

O que os Finlandeses precisam de saber acerca de Portugal.
What the Finns need to know about Portugal.
Mitä suomalaiset tarvitsee tietää Portugali.

Fonte: http://beijozxxi.blogspot.com/2011/05/sousa-mendes-figura-no-video-que-da.html

Midgets can't guarantee intra-Eurozone CAB adjustments

One problem with the Maastricht’s criteria, the Eurozone’s fiscal rules, was certainly the lack of enforcement , with an acquiescent Eurostat standing idly as the perimeter Public Administration was shrunk, and more and more expenditures and debt were reclassified as non-public.

Enforcement is done by people, who are naturally subject to various influences, and no one had any incentives to look at the growing debt icebergs as Governments borrowed off-budget.  Even the rating agencies and creditor seemed to have their "debt sonars" turned off.

But the more critical issue is that the poorly designed Maastricht criteria focused attention only on the intermediate and instrumental targets, the domestic fiscal deficit, rather than on the true ultimate goal, the current account balance. Worse than defining objectives is to establish the wrong objectives.

External imbalances were ignored because it was convenient to believe that intra-Eurozone trade imbalances  could be financed forever. In fact, having put aside the normal adjustment tools, the Single Market and the Single Currency make balanced external accounts all the more imperative.  But even in mid-2011, many continue to believe in this Single Curency illusion, and its collarary that trade surplus countries need do nothing to participate in the “intra-Eurozone external adjustments”, which are  seen as wholly the responsibiliity of trade deficit countries.

These fragile Eurozone economies are now being asked to do all the work necessary for the intra-Eurozone CAB adjustments, without the benefit of any of the usual balance of payments adjustment tools.

Economic  midgets with their policy hands tied behind their back playing trade volleyball against economic giants.

It is not going to work.

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
PPP Lusofonia

SEE
Artigo de Helena Garrido, Jornal de Negócios
It's the total external debt, stupid 
Balança comercial agrava-se 
This time is different 
 The Portuguese Economy: Portugal’s bailout: reinventing the wheel

Mais juízo orçamental não depende de mais "juízes"

Ken Rogoff diz:  "Para aumentar a credibilidade (orçamental), vários governos estão a avançar prudentemente com a criação de conselhos consultivos em matéria orçamental que gozam de uma maior independência, tendo frequentemente o papel dos bancos centrais como modelo. Entre estes países da nova vanguarda estão a Suécia, o Reino Unido, a Eslovénia e o Canadá."

Fonte: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=480349

Para aceder ao “podcast” deste texto em inglês, deve utilizar o seguinte link:
http://media.blubrry.com/ps/media.libsyn.com/media/ps/rogoff79.mp3

Sim, precisamos certamente de mais “juízo” orçamental, mas isso não implica necessariamente mais “juízes”. Já temos muitas instituições que falharam no cumprimento das suas funções estatutárias de garantir a  gestão prudente da despesa pública, da dívida pública e dos encargos extra-orçamentais.

Quem falhou nas suas funções de controlo orçamental?  
Quem não falhou? 

A DGO, a DGTF, a IGF e o Ministério das Finanças, os Controladores Financeiros, o INE  e o Eurostat, o Banco de Portugal, o Tribunal de Contas, a Assembleia da República, as Assembleias  Regionais e Municipais, as agências de rating, etc.

Para não esquecer os eleitores, que eles próprios fizeram vista grossa à insustentabilidade orçamental de todo tipo de politicas públicas.  Enquanto a dívida vai e vem, vamos nos governando. 

Agora prepara-se um novo Conselho de  Finanças Públicas que se pretende ser um órgão independente to Governo e até do próprio Tribunal de Contas.  

A nova LEO - Lei de Enquadramento Orçamental  propõe a criação de uma entidade independente, o Conselho das Finanças Públicas, cuja missão consiste  em

-avaliar a consistência dos objectivos relativamente aos cenários macroeconómico e orçamental

- a sustentabilidade de longo prazo das finanças públicas, e 

- o cumprimento da regra sobre o saldo  

- o cumprimento da regra sobre a despesa da administração central

- o cumprimento das regras sobre o endividamento das regiões autónomas e das 

autarquias previstas nas respectivas leis de financiamento. 

Este conselho deve integrar personalidades, de reconhecido mérito, com experiência nas áreas económica e de finanças".

Dito isto, a vigilância orçamental baseada em especialistas independentes (people-based fiscal vigilance) pode ser marginalmente mais eficaz do que a vigilância baseada em normas (rules-based fiscal vigilance), que podem revelar-se mal definidas ou fáceis de tornear.  Desde que haja vontade política firme e persistente para incomodar muitos interesses instalados. 


Por exemplo, os critérios de Maastricht definidos em 1999 (défices inferiores a 3% da despesa pública e divida pública inferior a 60% do PIB),  focavam o défice interno, ignorando o défice externo que se revelou muito mais crítico.  Considerando a avalanche de crédito fácil, todos os intervenientes tiveram grandes incentivos para evadir esta normas "macro-prudenciais", com desorçamentação cada vez mais "inovadora" e descarada.  

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa

ex-Controladora Financeira 


VER também Na senda do controlo orçamental , e Estatutos do Conselho de Finanças Públicas 

1º CISEGUR - Congresso Internacional de Segurança Pública e Privada

1º CISEGUR  - Congresso Internacional de Segurança Pública e Privada

Datas:  6 e 7 de Julho de 2011 

Local:  Auditório da Faculdade de Direito da Universidade de Lisboa,  Lisboa,  Portugal

Organizadores:   CJLP -  COMUNIDADE DE JURISTAS DE LÍNGUA PORTUGUESA, www.cjlp.org

Coordenação Executiva: Dr. Nelson Faria de Oliveira, www.fariadeoliveira.com

Coord  Científica: Prof. Eduardo Vera-Cruz Pinto e Prof. Marco Antonio Marques da Silva

Programa: Di 6 de Julho de 9.00h  Abertura 11.00h 1ª Sessão: Segurança e Ordem Pública 11.00h 2ª Sessão: Segurança do Estado e Comunicação social 15.00h 3ª Sessão: Segurança Privada e Interesse Público 15.00h 4ª Sessão: Segurança Energética 15.00h 5ª Sessão: Segurança Bancária Dia 7 de Julho 10.00h 6ª Sessão: Segurança Financeira 10.00h 7º Sessão: Segurança e Cidadania 15.00h 8ª Sessão: Segurança Judiciária e Penitenciária 15.00h 9ª Sessão: Segurança nos Transportes 15.00h 10ª Sessão: Segurança Militar e Relações Externas 18.00h Encerramento