Tradutor

quinta-feira, maio 14, 2020

The problem with GERMANY is not the ECB nor COVID19

The problem with GERMANY is the same as always.

Mais uma vez, a Europa tem um problema com a Alemanha. E desta vez não é diferente.
Na visão da Alemanha e dos mercados financeiros, a Europa é a Alemanha e o resto é paisagem.

Em vez de perguntar se a politica do BCE de comprar  Obrigações dos  Tesouros nacionais é legal, deve-se perguntar porque é necessário aumentar a liquidez no  mercado financeiro europeu de tal forma que as taxas Euribor se tornam negativas e deixam de dar os sinais necessários para a poupança.
A excessiva liquidez do BCE é necessária porque a União Europeia é INCAPAZ de instaurar o estímulo fiscal necessário e urgente nesta crise Covid19 como foi nas outras crises.
O grosso do estimulo orçamental europeu é lançado na Alemanha para os alemães, incluindo para os produtores de automóveis que enganaram os consumidores no Dieselgate  durante anos mas não indemnizaram a maioria dos clientes europeus, como eu.
EU Court Faces 'Declaration of War' From German Top Judges - Bloomberg

O Tribunal  STJ alemão até pode ter razão em temos jurídicos, bem argumentados em latim. 


Mas a Alemanha está muito errada em termos económicos. 

A lei dos homens não se consegue sobrepôr às leis da economia, que ditam que todos os deselibrios económicos têm que ser corrigidos, mais cedo num suave vai e vem ou bruscamente em fortes crises mais tarde.

Se a Alemanha não quer ser a "locomotiva da Europa" , se quer defender os seus excedentes comerciais e os seus superavites orçamentais a todo custo de todos nós, o Sonho Europeu desvanece-se.  Por isso se deixou de falar da "convergência" prometida até 1999.

Não há União, comercial, aduaneira e/ou monetária, que aguente desequilibrios e divergencias permanentes e crescentes.

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa 
Economista
#COVID19 #EuropeanUnion #Divergence

FT ECB and the German court ruling 
The European Central Bank is deluding itself over German court ruling.
A smart response would be for the EU to address the problems of the eurozone head on.
The ruling last week highlighted the toxic idea that the eurozone can forever rely for its survival on its central bankers, and their enthusiasm in pushing EU laws to the limits.
https://www.ft.com/content/fc487cac-9105-11ea-9207-ace009a12028?fbclid=IwAR2q8Z11efZhPlV6AvXLDkgy4B4SPmLX27eHuIlrfa7XhxISSVF0sAk5uf4

 Germany is vastly outspending other countries with its coronavirus stimulus
  • Germany is going to need “as much support as possible” and it has “the fiscal space” to do it, Zsolt Darvas, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel and one of the authors of the data study, told CNBC Friday.The data study also shows that European countries with more limited fiscal space have been “cautious” in stepping up their immediate contributions.
  • Volkswagen strikes 'dieselgate' compensation deal with German consumers  https://www.france24.com/en/20200228-volkswagen-strikes-dieselgate-compensation-deal-with-german-consumers The mass lawsuit is one of the biggest legal hangovers from VW's 2015 admission to fitting 11 million vehicles worldwide with software to make the engines appear less polluting in regulatory tests than in real driving conditions.

1 comentário:

  1. The problem with GERMANY is the same as always.
    Once again, Europe has a problem with Germany. And this time is no different.
    In the view of Germany and the financial markets, Europe is Germany and the rest is landscape.
    Instead of asking whether the ECB's policy of buying national Treasury Bonds is legal, one must ask why it is necessary to increase liquidity in the European financial market in such a way that Euribor rates become negative and fail to give the necessary signals to savings.
    The ECB's excessive liquidity is necessary because the European Union is UNABLE to introduce the necessary and urgent fiscal stimulus in this Covid crisis19 as it was in other crises.
    The bulk of the European budgetary stimulus is launched in Germany for the Germans, including car manufacturers who have cheated consumers on Dieselgate for years but have not compensated most European customers, like me.
    The German Supreme Court may even be right in legal terms.
    But Germany is very wrong in economic terms.

    The law of men cannot override the laws of economics, which dictate that all economic imbalances have to be corrected, earlier in a smooth coming and going or suddenly in sharp crises later.

    If Germany does not want to be the "locomotive of Europe", if it wants to defend its trade surpluses and its budget surpluses at all costs for all of us, the European Dream vanishes.
    That is why we stopped talking about the "convergence" promised until 1999.

    There is no Union, commercial, customs and / or monetary, that can withstand permanent and growing imbalances and divergences.
    Mariana Abrantes de Sousa, Economist
    #EuropeanDivergence, #ECB, #COVID19 

    ResponderEliminar