PPIAF calls for short stories of good PPPs

PPPs Short Stories Competition
January 23-March 31, 2015

To identify innovative solutions and best practices for developing and implementing PPPs, PPIAF and the World Bank Group’s PPP team invite individuals and teams (up to 3 people) to participate in the PPPs Short Stories Competition. Participants are invited to submit case studies, essays and video submissions that highlight innovative ideas for increasing private sector participation in infrastructure in developing countries.
To be eligible for consideration, entries must include a completed submission form and be submitted to PPP_competition@worldbank.org by 11:59pm (EST) on March 31, 2015.
See more in  http://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2014/12/22/ppps-short-stories-competition?hootPostID=f274e7976439749db14cf2584299bab8#1 

It's the Gross External Debt, s.....

Estou a ver-me grega com os dados da Divida de Externa Bruta de EUR 409,5 Bln,  o montante que temos que efectivamente reembolsar aos credores não-residentes através de superavites na BTC Balança de Transações Correntes.

Mais importante que a Divida Pública, que depende da classificação dada pelo Eurostat, a Divida Externa Bruta é baseada em valores efectivamente transaccionados.   Por exemplo, a divida de uma concessionária  pode ficar  excluída da Dívida Pública mas ser incluída na Divida Externa, na medida que as PPP recorrem quase sempre a bancos internacionais.   

E Portugal já vendeu os anéis, já privatizou a EDP, a REN, a ANA Aeroportos, os portos, os CTT...

 GED  Portugal      EUR 409, 5 Bln 

Fonte:   https://www.bportugal.pt/pt-PT/Estatisticas/IndicadoresEstatisticosPadronizadosSDDS/sddspaginas/Paginas/extdebt.htm

GED Greece        EUR 412,5 Bln  a Set-2014 e 417,6 Bln a Dez-2014

VER It's the Gross External Debt ... 1 

A Dezembro 2014, o Banco de Portugal fez uma revisão em baixa da Dívida Externa Bruta para 406,6 biliões de euros  40406.636
6.636

406.636

Eleições assustam credores

Com a vitória da esquerda Syriza  na Grécia, houve-se uma certa histeria, muito alimentada pelos credores e pela comunicação social.

Calma !

O que está em causa não é o Euro, nem sequer a União Europeia.
Se a Moeda Única está em causa é  porque ainda tem que dar provas de que pode ser boa para todos os 18 países membros da Eurozone, e que não contribuiu para a divergência insustentável entre os "grandes e fortes" e os "pequenos e fracos".

O que está mesmo em causa é a partilha das perdas causadas pelo rebentamento da bolha do crédito "subprime à europeia" entre credores e devedores igualmente responsáveis.  Afinal não há "divida imaculada".

Como devedora, a Alemanha obteve um perdão e reestruturação da sua divida externa em nos Acordos de Londres de 1953 em condições muito mais favoráveis do que nos está a oferecer agora como credora.

Reestruturar a dívida excessiva não é pecado,"it's just business".

E politica.  Em democracia, os eleitores não aceitam apertar o cinto sem fim à vista.

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa
PPP Lusofonia

BCE e o enchente de liquidez que vai chegar a conta-gotas a Portugal

SOS EURO, ECB to the rescue

(ver em Português abaixo) 

The ECB announced today that it will buy € 60 Bln of assets each month until Sep-2016.

Unlike other central banks, which have  the key  monetary policy objective of keeping inflation within an acceptable band around 2%, the ECB is also being called on to revive the Eurozone economy and to save the single currency, the Euro.

As the ECB launches a new Quantitative Easing program, which can be seen as QE 2 European style, it will again increase its balance sheet to the level of € 3,000 Bln topped in 2012 with bank emergency funding, but which came down to close to € 2,000 Bln in 2014. That earlier QE 1 allowed banks of the most indebted countries such as Portugal to draw funds from the ECB to lend to local borrowers in order to enable them to "repay" the international creditors, including official creditors such as the EIB. This substitution of original creditors greatly benefitted the main creditors who had let too much, such as German, French, English and Spanish banks, and so had the support of those national authorities.

But if with the initial QE 1 ECB released many of the international creditors, debtors hardly received any debt relief, with the exception of the debt forgiveness granted to Greece. Since then, the increase in spreads and the fall in inflation has increased the real burden of debt in other indebted countries, which is generally recognized as an untenable situation.

We must reduce the real debt burden of the overly indebted borrowers, either through debt restructuring or through increasing their income, though inflation, exports, etc.  Instead, we live with "zombies", companies and banks that are hardly alive.

Strangely, countries like Germany which most benefited from such debt relief in the past have short memories of this, and are now the most insistent on defending their creditor rights, and on rejecting responsibility for their part in the European subprime credit bubble.

But a central bank is not a "jack of all trades" and monetary policy   cannot, alone, revive each of the 18 diverging Eurozone economies, much less in the current  "liquidity trap", when interest rates are near zero and increases in the money supply do not translate into increased economic activity or even into inflation.

What can be expected from the new Eurozone QE 2 is that the Euro, already at the minimum of 11 years, will depreciate, and the prices of financial assets such as equities and (risk free) bonds will increase.  Given the reliance on " trickling down ", reductions in the cost and increases in the volume of (risk-bearing) credit to the real economy are unlikely, as are increases in the most important "price" of all, nominal wages " in the distressed countries,

The 18 Eurozone countries are increasingly polarized and divergent, so increasing "low-risk” liquidity may help a little, but cannot guarantee boosting credit to real economies  where it is urgently needed, and upon which  debt repayment capacities depend.

The flood of liquidity in Frankfurt will reach Amarante in an eye-dropper.

This is because more (risk-free) liquidity does not guarantee more credit capacity, more bank capital or more abilty to evaluate projects and borrowers and to manage credit portfolios. Liquidity is general. Credit is specific, directed, takes risk, assumes losses and undertakes restructurings when needed. The are the true functions of intermediation which the Eurozone financial system is failing to carry out now.  

The ECB has been buying "covered bonds" from banks, backed by credit assets to the private sector and businesses. In 2014, the ECB bought € 30 Bln of bank bonds and less than € 3 Bln of asset securitizations. This was still very little, but it's still more than the d € 22 Bln of EIB Global Loans repassed by local banks to SMEs.  As the official development bank of the European Union, the EIB would be the institution specifically mandated to finance the real economy, but it hampered by a inappropriate “risk free” focus and by few “real financing” instruments such as export credit.

What is at stake is dramatic for the 18 countries of  the Eurozone and the EU overall, because  the continuing economic weaknesses   and deflation will provoke  more recession (the third in five years) and increase in the real burden of debt. 

But the new QE 2 Quantitative Easing is no panacea. What is missing is fiscal and budget stimulus in creditor and surplus countries.  Germany is even unwilling to borrow in order to invest in the badly needed renewal of their infrastructure. So the QE 2 will not solve the excessive debt problem nor the lack of income of the debtor countries, which requires an increase of exports and rebalancing intra-Eurozone trade.

Let us be clear:  The biggest threat to the Euro is the diverging fortunes and trade imbalances among the 18 Eurozone countries. 

Thus, the success of the new Eurozone QE 2 Quantitative Easing will be measured not in the falling yields of German bunds, but in the falling intra-Eurozone trade imbalances, not by the size of the ECB balance sheet, but by the availability of export credit to struggling exporters in Portugal, Spain and other indebted countries.

In the case of severe distress, in the Eurozone it has always been the debtors, or taxpayers, who  bear the costs of adjustment, rather than the creditors responsible for the credit bubble.  If Germany and other creditors could promote expansionary policies, and share the cost of adjustment of the excessive credit, this would separate the problem of credit from the problem of currency. After all, creditor countries need to undertake their own “structural reforms" as much as the debtor countries. 

Because the unsustainable debt is unsustainable, be it in Euros or in any other currency.

Saving the Euro is not enough. 

It is essential to Save Our  Societies, massacred by the very high unemployment and gripped by the lack of liquidity.

Mariana ABRANTES de Sousa 

PPP Lusofonia 

Portugal, 22-Jan-2015 

O BCE anunciou hoje que vai comprar €60 Bln de activos por mês até Set-2016. 

Ao contrário de outros bancos centrais, que tem como principal objectivo da politica monetária conter a inflação dentro de uma banda aceitável cerca dos 2%, o BCE é chamado a reanimar a economia da Eurozone e salvar a Moeda Única, o Euro.  

Com um novo programa de Quantitative Easing, QE 2 à europeia, o BCE volta  aumentar o seu balanço de tinha ultrapassado €3 000 Bln em 2012 com os financiamentos bancários de emergência, mas que desceu para perto de €2 000 Bln em 2014.  Aquele  QE 1 em tempo de crise permitiu que os bancos dos países mais endividados como Portugal  fossem buscar fundos ao BCE para emprestar às empresas para que estas pudessem "reembolsar" outros credores internacionais, inclusive o BEI.  Esta substituição de credores favoreceu bastante os principais credores, bancos alemães, franceses, ingleses e espanhóis, e por isso teve o apoio dessas autoridades. 

Mas se o QE 1 do BCE  libertou muitos dos credores internacionais, os devedores pouco beneficiaram, fora o perdão de divida concedida à Grécia.  E entretanto o aumento das spreads e a queda da inflação fez aumentar a carga real do endividamento nos outros países endividados, uma situação reconhecidamente  insustentável.

Ou reduzimos a carga real da dívida através da reestruturação ou através do aumento dos rendimentos, inflação, exportações, etc. Entretanto,  convivemos com "zombies", empresas e bancos que estão vivos,  mas pouco. 

Mas um  Banco Central não é “pau para toda a obra” e  a politica monetária a cargo da Autoridade Monetária não consegue, sozinha, reanimar a economia, muito menos nesta conjuntura de “liquidity trap”, quando as taxas de juro estão perto do zero e aumentos na massa monetária não se traduzem nem em aumento de actividade económica nem sequer em inflação.  

O que se pode esperar do novo QE 2 europeu é que o EURO continue a desvalorizar, já está nos mínimos de 11 anos, e que aumentem os preços dos activos financeiros como as acções e obrigações de baixo risco. Por muito eficaz que seja o "trickle down",  é pouco provável reduzir o custo e aumentar volume do crédito à economia real ou  aumentar o "preço" mais importante, os salários nos países sobre endividados. 

Nesta  Eurozone cada vez mais polarizada e divergente, o aumento de liquidez focada no "baixo-risco"  pode ajudar, mas não garante o aumento de crédito à economia real dos países mais endividados onde isso é uma necessidade premente, e da qual depende a nossa capacidade de reembolso da dívida.  

O enorme caudal de liquidez em Frankfurt vai chegar a conta-gotas a Amarante.  

Isto porque mais liquidez  (risk-free) não significa mais capacidade de crédito, nem mais capacidade de avaliar projectos e mutuários e de gerir carteiras de crédito.  Liquidez é avulso. Crédito é dirigido, toma risco,  assume perdas e faz reestruturações quando necessário. Tudo funções de intermediação que o sistema financeiro deixou de saber fazer.

O BCE tem estado a comprar "covered bonds", obrigações bancárias caucionadas com os activos do credito bancário ao sector privado  e empresas.  Em 2014, o BCE comprou €30 biliões de obrigações bancárias e menos  de €3 Bln de titularizações de activos.  Isto é pouquíssimo, mas mesmo assim é mais que os cerca de €22 Bln de Global Loans do BEI  repassadas pelos bancos locais às PME.  O BEI é o banco oficial de desenvolvimenta da EU que tem o mandato  específico de financiar a economia real. 

O que está em causa é dramático para a Eurozone e para a EU, pois a continuarem as quebras na actividade económica e a deflação teremos mais recessão (a terceira em 5 anos) e maior carga real da divida.

Mas o Quantitative Easing QE não é panaceia.  Falta um estímulo fiscal e orçamental nos países credores e superavitários, como a Alemanha,  que não quer endividar-se nem para investir na renovação da sua infraestrutura que tanto precisa.  Nos casos de distress, na Eurozone têm sido sempre os devedores, ou os contribuintes, a suportarem os custos do ajustamento, pouco  os credores responsáveis pela bolha de crédito. Por isso o QE 2  não vai resolver o problema de divida excessiva, nem o  da falta de receitas dos países devedores, que depende do aumento de exportações e do reequilíbrio comercial entre os 18 países da Eurozone. 

Se a Alemanha e os outros credores promovessem politicas expansionistas,  e partilhassem  como credores o custo do ajustamento do credito excessivo, poder-se-ia separar o problema do credito do problema da moeda.  Afinal também faltam "reformas estruturais" nos países credores que permitam isso.

Porque a  divida  insustentável é insustentável,  seja em Euros seja noutra moeda qualquer. 

Salvar o Euro não basta.  

É essencial salvar as nossas economias e sociedades, massacradas com desemprego elevadíssimo e apertos de liquidez depressivos.    

Mariana Abrantes de Sousa 

PPP Lusofonia 

Sources: 
Bloomberg  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-21/ecb-said-to-propose-qe-of-50-billion-euros-a-month-through-2016.html
Credit writedowns https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2014/02/ecbs-next-steps-could-involve-suspending-smp-sterilization-instant-qe.html
Público http://www.publico.pt/economia/noticia/bce-avanca-para-compra-de-divida-de-60-mil-milhoes-de-euros-por-mes-1683029 
Economico http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/compra-de-divida-soberana-pelo-bce-nao-viola-lei-europeia_209866.html

Reestruturar a dívida essencial

Mariana A. de Sousa:"Não tenham pena dos credores que puseram cá dinheiro"

• 
  

Os comentadores do ETV Mariana Abrantes de Sousa e Hélder Oliveira analisam o manifesto para a reestruturação da dívida portuguesa, num programa conduzido por Catarina Tavares Machado. "Conselho Consultivo" de 12 de Março de 2014.
Grécia e Irlanda já conseguiram mais de 30 anos.
Portugal tem mais divida do sector privado do que os outros países

Oportunidade USAID Angola - controlo e avaliação na saúde

Monitoring and Evaluation Technical Team Leader

Home Base of Applicant (D.C. or other location) with travel to Luanda, Angola

USAID Health Finance and Governance Project

Approximate Level of Effort: 50 days

Anticipated Period of Performance:   February – June 2015

Project Description: USAID’s Global Health Bureau’s Health Finance and Governance (HFG) Project is a five-year (2012–2017), $209 million global project designed to improve health finance and health governance systems in partner countries in ways that expand access to health care and improved health outcomes.

HFG has supported the Angolan Ministry of Health (MINSA) to complete their Health Sector Strategy (PNDS 2012–2025). HFG worked closely with the Ministry’s technical team to collect data, produce a validated budget, train staff, and present a budget to the Multi-Sector Commission. HFG will now provide assistance to develop a plan for monitoring and evaluation of PNDS progress. This will allow MINSA to ensure sustainability through securing and prioritizing funding.

HFG will collaborate closely with a PNDS technical group and other MINSA staff to review international best practices of monitoring and evaluating health sector strategies. The work will develop a plan for programmatic and financial monitoring and evaluation of the PNDS at national, provincial, and municipal levels.

Position Description: The Technical Team leader will be responsible for the overall design and production of the M&E plan for the PNDS. S/he will lead a small team, including a public financial management expert, and monitoring and evaluation specialist on this task. S/he will work from her/his home base and make multiple trips to Luanda, Angola to meet with USAID and MINSA officials to lead the following tasks:

• Review of best practices of how countries monitor and evaluate performance of health sector strategies, with a focus for long-term National Public Health Plans.
• Prioritize and organize the approximately 420 PNDS indicators to allow for assessment of implementation at three levels – municipal, provincial and central – within existing MINSA data collection and analysis systems.
• Develop a practical plan for monitoring and evaluation the programmatic and financial execution of the PNDS. The plan will include detailed steps required for implementation.

Responsibilities: The responsibilities of the Technical Team Leader include:

• Facilitate collaboration between HFG and PNDS technical group on monitoring and evaluation.
• Draft a review of international best practices for monitoring performance of sectoral strategies, and present to MINSA officials.
• Develop a work plan for the overall program, working closely with other team members.
• Facilitate development of Key Performance indicators (KPIs) for PNDS.
• Define the scope for the review of MINSA public financial management systems.
• Lead the development of the M & E Plan for the implementation of the PNDS.
• Lead requirements for reporting information and briefings to USAID.

Qualifications: The qualifications for the Technical Team Leader include:

• Fluent Portuguese, written and verbal.
• 10 years of experience in monitoring and evaluation, including developing key performance indicators.
• Demonstrated experience with developing monitoring and evaluation plans for national sector strategies, with preference for health.
• Strong interpersonal skills.
• Strong report writing skills in English and Portuguese
• Willingness and ability to travel internationally during the period of performance.

Application Instructions:

Please submit your Cover Letter and Resume (or CV). Please note that this is a prospective position. Terms, conditions, including, but not limited to, scope of work, period of performance, position description, responsibilities, and qualifications are all subject to change.

Oportunidade - Brasil Gestão de Voluntariado

Management of International Corporate Volunteer Program

Recife, Brazil 

Apply by 20 February 2015

Mid-level , Short-term contract assignmentPosted on 7 January 2015

An NGO based in Washington, DC will be managing an international corporate volunteer program in Recife, Brazil, scheduled to take place in July of 2015. It  would like to hire a consultant currently residing in Recife to help with program design and provide project and logistical support to the selected team of corporate volunteers from March through August 2015.

The selected consultant’s main responsibilities will include, but may not be limited to, the following:

ACTIVITIES

• Assist with identification and selection of local clients (mostly NGOs) and develop scopes of work (SOWs) reflecting the specific areas of intervention they solicited
• Facilitate meetings with potential local clients in English as needed during   staff scoping trip
• Participate in conference calls in English with corporate volunteers
• Coordinate the Welcome and Final Event(s) for volunteer groups and participating clients
• Assist in procuring accommodations and transportation for volunteers in Recife as needed on arrival and for the duration of their stay
• Orient new corporate volunteers upon arrival in Recife
• Manage assignment, work, and travel logistics for volunteers while they are in Recife
• Act as the on-the-ground interface with  local partners in Recife
• Act as a logistical and informational resource for volunteers and troubleshoot on problems they may face
• Correspond with   headquarters program staff and other stakeholders to assure satisfaction on the part of the volunteers and our partners
• Monitor and advise on security arrangements for volunteers when they are in Recife
• Participate in the regular evening meetings with corporate volunteers
• Prepare financial and final program reports

KNOWLEDGE AND SKILL REQUIREMENTS

• Graduate degree in international relations, communications, project management, organizational development, NGO management, or related field
• Experience in project management and in leading multicultural groups;
• Currently residing in Recife
• Attention to detail and people oriented
• Exposure and experience in the NGO sector a plus;
• Excellent proficiency in English
• Interest in sustainable development and Corporate Social Responsibility

O bacalhau, fiel amigo dos...noruegueses

Talvez não fosse mau que os portugueses mudassem alguns hábitos.

Pelo menos, do ponto de vista económico, seria bom que deixássemos de lado o famoso “fiel amigo”. Fiel amigo da carteira dos noruegueses, que não brincam em serviço e nos colocam à mesa o bacalhau da aquacultura nas águas frias da Noruega.

E nós a pensarmos que comemos bacalhau pescado no mar alto do Atlântico Norte (Terra Nova, Gronelândia, Noruega, etc). Santa ilusão.

Os noruegueses conhecem bem (estudam ao pormenor) os gostos dos portugueses e sabem que comemos 1 000 toneladas (um milhão de quilos) de bacalhau só na noite da consoada.

Compramos à Noruega cerca de 50 000 toneladas de bacalhau por ano, representando isso 70% do bacalhau que consumimos, segundo o Conselho

Norueguês das Pescas (Norge).

“Já processado”, é só cozer e por no prato. Assim vai a nossa dependência alimentar . Se a Noruega nos quiser por “a pão e laranja” é só decretar um embargo (os embargos até estão, outra vez, na moda, que o digam os russos) à sua exportação de bacalhau para a nossa noite da consoada. Gostava de ver... Sem bacalhau (importado) que seria de nós?

Porque não optar pelo polvo?

Para a noite da consoada, as famílias portuguesas também gostam de peru (3%) e de polvo (7%), segundo artigo da Lusa (18.12.2014).

Ora aí está uma alternativa muito mais saudável do ponto de vista económico. Consumir polvo, pois claro. Seria, talvez, um bom aproveitamento  da nossa fantástica Zona Económica Exclusiva (ZEE).

Aproveitar essa ZEE para pescar polvo, não só para a mesa dos portugueses, mas para a mesa de todos os europeus (exportávamos peixe em vez de o importar).

Afinal que proveito estamos a tirar dos 1,7 milhões de km2 (quilómetros quadrados) da nossa ZEE (fala-se que pode ir para 4 milhões), 18 vezes o nosso território emerso (continente e ilhas), a 3ª maior da Europa e a 11ª do mundo? (ver Wikipédia). Sim.  Que proveito estamos a tirar desta formidável dádiva da natureza ( e da ONU) que nos poderia permitir ser um país fornecedor mundial de peixe em vez de sermos um grande importador de peixe, como acontece hoje e desde há muito?

Segundo o INE a nossa dependência alimentar é principalmente de cereais e de peixe congelado, seco e salgado. Parece mentira mas não é, infelizmente.

Como é possível dispormos de uma das maiores ZEE marítimas do mundo, particularmente graças aos Açores e à Madeira, e sermos grandes importadores líquidos de peixe?

Somos grandes consumidores de peixe. Estamos em 3º lugar no mundo, logo atrás dos japoneses e dos islandeses. Isso, em si, não tem mal nenhum, a não ser ficarmos tão dependentes do exterior em bens alimentares, onde poderíamos ser exportadores líquidos.

Para isso, mudar de hábitos alimentares e aproveitar muito melhor os recursos sobre os quais temos jurisdição, poderia dar uma grande ajuda para o país e para o  nosso futuro coletivo.

António Abrantes

Webinar sobre financiamento por resultados no sector social

The webinar on Green bonds and social impact investing, 

Green bonds and social impact investing IFLR, Mofo Many investors are increasingly seeking to align their financial goals with their social objectives. Various legal entity structures have evolved, such as... Dec 09 2014 4:00 pm | 90 mins

Test your system now to make sure you can view our webinars and videos: 

https://www.brighttalk.com/help/viewers/systemtest.

Nós por cá tudo ...

Convencer os Europeus que estão melhor dentro  do que fora do Euro  é uma tarefa difícil senão impossível, quando os cidadãos "escutam" mais o seu bolso do que as afirmações dos líderes. 

Para os europeus devedores que tenham finalmente aprendido a fazer contas e perdido as ilusões do Euro, a escolha poderá ser fácil:  Quem está disposto a sacrificar a sua prosperidade, e a dos seus filhos e netos, para  manter o país no Euro?

No recente artigo  (4-Jan-2015) no jornal Financial Times, "Political extremists may be the Eurozone’s saviours"  Wolfgang Münchau apresenta o argumento que os ditos extremistas, que insistem na reestruturação  da dívida,  podem mesmo ajudar a salvar a Eurozone da crescente divergência entre os   credores e  devedores.  

Apesar do crescente consenso que a divida externa de alguns países é insustentável, os países credores  insistem que não haverá lugar a uma reestruturação negociada da divida externa, empurrando os países devedores para fora do Euro.  

Os credores, os extremistas do outro lado, não assumem co-responsabilidade pelos abusos do crédito sub-prime europeu nem admitem  reestruturação, uma postura conhecida na praça como "trying to get blood from a stone".   

Recordemos que o principal credor, a Alemanha, beneficiou de um grande perdão de dívida no pós-Guerra em 1953.   

Quanto mais rígida a gestão da Eurozone, maior o risco do seu desmembramento. 

Ver mais em http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49ef5d20-9276-11e4-b213-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3NysDsCcN
German debt 1953 - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/27/greece-spain-helped-germany-recover

What was good for the goose  is seen as being too good for the gander. 

Oportunidade Timor - Especialista no Combate à Violência Doméstica

Job Advertisement

Title : Baseline Research Consultant Team

Program : Ending Violence Against Women (EVAW)

Unit : Timor-Leste Office

Reports to : Research and M&E Coordinator

BACKGROUND

The Asia Foundation (the Foundation) is implementing the EVAW Program in Timor-Leste under a Grant Agreement with the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The EVAW Program goal is to reduce the proportion of women who have experienced violence, and to improve the well-being of women and children affected by violence. The program aims to improve outcomes for women and children in prevention, support services, and access to justice by improving capacity in key ministries, reducing levels of violence, improving services, and strengthening justice processes. The program will focus on five so-called hub districts that have existing services and facilities. These districts are Dili, Baucau, Bobonaro, Covalima, and Oecusse. The program will also work in non-hub pilot districts, likely to be Viqueque and Manufahi.

The EVAW Program will be informed by research conducted on the underlying causes of VAW and opportunities for EVAW in Timor-Leste relating to the core pillars of prevention, service provision, and access to justice. The EVAW Program aims to develop evidence-based practice across the program and to close the feedback loop between research, activity design, monitoring results and impact, and revising design. The program hopes to identify relevant international experience and link with research both internationally and locally, as well as draw on the Foundation’s wealth of potentially relevant research.

The Foundation will engage a team of consultants to develop and conduct a survey on the prevalence and perpetration of VAW, including attitudes and behaviors, to provide a baseline for the program goal of reducing the proportion of women who have experienced violence in the last 12 months, as well as for the End of Program Outcomes under the Prevention Pillar. The survey data will also be used in other program research activities.

VAW in Timor-Leste

According to the 2009-2010 National Demographic and Health Survey, thirty-eight percent of women surveyed reported experiencing physical violence since age fifteen, with seventy-four percent of these cases involving a current husband or partner. Twenty-nine per cent reported having experienced physical violence often or sometimes in the past twelve months. There is also a history of sexual violence against women during the years of occupation and conflict, and anecdotally there is reported to be a high level of abuse of children, including sexual abuse, particularly of girls. Recent research by Paz y Desarollo on attitudes and behaviors towards domestic violence found that younger, rural, and less-educated men were more likely to be more gender equitable than older, urban, or more-educated men.

The EVAW Program will draw on prior research that has been conducted in Timor-Leste to contextualize program progress. In addition, the program will support independent research to establish a baseline for prevalence and perpetration of VAW, and attitudes and behaviors related to VAW.

Activity

The Foundation will engage a team of consultants to design and implement a survey in selected districts of Timor-Leste (certain program districts as well as controls) in early 2015. The survey should have its foundation in a solid methodology, such as the WHO methodology or the UN Multi-Country Study on Men and Violence study methodology, adapted to the needs of the EVAW Program. The study should also draw on other global best practice related to measuring perpetration and prevalence of VAW and children. The random, stratified household survey will question both women and men (but not from the same household, for ethical reasons). In addition to impact assessment, this survey will provide a statistical basis that will intersect with two other research projects, one on women’s help-seeking pathways and another on motivators for behavior change. In line with this, the survey will also include questions to capture a baseline for attitudes/acceptance towards VAW, reactive or help-seeking behavior as well as perpetration, experiences of violence during childhood, and understanding or awareness of different types and manifestations of violence. While the majority of VAW in Timor-Leste is domestic or intimate partner violence, the survey will not be limited to measuring those types of violence. The survey should also provide context-specific risk and protective factors for violence, which will inform the primary prevention activities of the program. The EVAW Program Logic is attached to this Terms of Reference.

In addition to designing the survey tools and methodology, in line with Foundation experience and international good practice, the consultant team will implement the survey using electronic data collection.[1] All aspects of the survey should be undertaken in accordance with international guidelines on ethical and safety issues linked to the collection of data on VAW. The team will work with the EVAW Program to recruit, select, and train appropriate Timorese locators and enumerators to conduct the data collection.

In addition to the baseline report, the consultants will draw on the survey findings to recommend any additions or amendments to key indicators for tracking program progress against selected outcomes, as well as to develop realistic targets for the program M&E Plan.

REQUIRED QUALIFICATIONS OF THE TEAM

• Post-graduate degrees in relevant fields.
• Skilled in quantitative analysis. Familiarity with statistical analysis computer programs such as SPSS or STATA.
• Experience coordinating and overseeing data collection in dispersed locations in developing country and/or post-conflict contexts, training of staff, and in addressing risk and safety concerns related to collecting sensitive information (i.e. WHO ethical and safety standards/recommendations).
• Experience conducting baselines and impact evaluation highly desirable.
• Exceptional verbal, analytical, and written communication skills.

Preferred experience and skills:

• Demonstrated experience and capacity related to EVAW programs, including qualitative analysis and research best practices.
• Experience in use of technology to conduct surveys (i.e. via hand-held devices, data uploading and storage).
• Experience working and conducting research in Timor-Leste.

Specific responsibilities of the consultant:

• Review EVAW program documents and research, and previous research and analysis on prevalence, perpetration, behavior, and attitudes of VAW in Timor-Leste (e.g. research by IRC in Timor-Leste in 2002 and 2003, the 2009-2010 Demographic Health Survey and Secondary Analysis, Paz y Desarollo’s 2013 Baseline Study on attitudes and perceptions of gender and masculinities of youth in Timor-Leste), as well as regionally and globally (e.g. recent WHO and UN Multi-Country Studies on VAW) that may contribute either relevant findings or approaches and methodologies for establishing a baseline for the program’s activities;
• Work with the EVAW Program to develop a more detailed and specific Scope of Work for the implementation of the baseline survey (the expression of interest required for this application should provide a starting point);
• Design survey and methodology to establish a baseline for the EVAW Program goal and selected outcomes, including sampling size/necessary response rate, selection of geographic areas, and data collection tools and protocols, drawing on experience/best practice both in Timor-Leste and globally, and taking into account needs and opportunities for comparability with other relevant surveys across both time and location/country;
• Ensure survey and methodology is in line with appropriate and rigorous safety and ethics protocols (i.e. WHO standards) related to interviewing women who may be at risk of or have experienced violence;
• Consult with a Dili-based reference group of program stakeholders on the survey tools and methodology prior to conducting the survey;
• Work with the EVAW Program to identify and train necessary locators and enumerators who will implement the survey in focus districts, likely using tablet technology and Open Data Kit software, and Form hub or a similar online platform. Work with the EVAW Program staff in the development and translation of survey tools, including survey questions, and training materials;
• Pilot test survey and refine survey tools and methodology as needed;
• Deploy survey and conduct oversight and monitoring, including quality assurance;
• Compile, validate, clean, and analyze collected data. Clearly disaggregate and appropriately weight the responses, taking into account relevant demographics, such as disability, education level, family size, etc. The consultant team will confirm the necessary cross-tabulations with the EVAW Program team;
• Prepare narrative report, and/or other formats to present the survey findings, including outlining methodology used. Report should include recommendations for indicators as well as program targets, and suggestions for integrating survey data with other data and research to inform program baselines (such as secondary analysis of previous Foundation law, justice, and security surveys, and surveys or research conducted by others in Timor-Leste).
• Coordinate with EVAW Program team to facilitate external review, by an academic expert of relevant background, of the draft methodology and findings at key points during the activity to affirm the survey approach and process.

Key outputs:

• Desk review of existing data and analysis on the prevalence and perpetration of VAW, and related attitudes, behaviors, and perceptions in Timor-Leste, to identify existing information of relevance to the survey activity.
• Survey work plan, methodology, and field tested data collection tools.
• Data collectors, trained in collaboration with the EVAW Program.
• Support to data collectors as needed during field work.
• Statistical component of the findings (frequency and cross-tabular analysis) in SPSS/STATA (.sav files) with all questions clearly labeled with weightings included; and in Excel format (.xls files) with all questions clearly labeled, and margins of error included.
• A narrative report of no more than 40 pages, clearly illustrating methodology and findings. Report should also highlight findings of note that may have impact on program logic/theory of change, as well as included suggested indicators and targets for program monitoring and evaluation. Process should be described adequately to ease replication.
• Presentation to the program team and other stakeholders, summarizing and conveying key components of the report.

APPLICATION PROCESS

Interested teams should submit expressions of interest outlining their proposed process, approach, and work plan to accomplish the activity above, including sampling, number of required days, total activity budget, and any relevant assumptions. CVs for proposed personnel should also be enclosed. The activity budget should reflect salaries as well as any anticipated costs for travel within Timor-Leste.

Please submit expressions of interest to Tamara Failor, M&E Specialist, EVAW Program, atTamara.Failor@asiafoundation.org. Expressions of interest should be received by close of business in Dili, Timor-Leste, on Friday, December 19th, 2014.

[1]The Foundation has experience in successfully conducting surveys in Timor-Leste using hand-held tablets instead of paper-based instruments and has found this promotes efficiency and cost savings by reducing the efforts needed towards data entry, cleaning, and quality assurance. The Foundation owns tablets loaded with Open Data Kit software, which are used periodically for Foundation surveys and will be available for the implementation of the baseline survey.

About the Organization

The Asia Foundation is a nonprofit international development organization committed to improving lives across a dynamic and developing Asia. Informed by six decades of experience and deep local expertise, our programs address critical issues affecting Asia in the 21st century—governance and law, economic development, women's empowerment, environment, and regional cooperation. In addition, our Books for Asia and professional exchange programs are among the ways we encourage Asia's continued development as a peaceful, just, and thriving region of the world.

Headquartered in San Francisco, The Asia Foundation works through a network of offices in 17 Asian countries and in Washington, DC. Working with public and private partners, the Foundation receives funding from a diverse group of bilateral and multilateral development agencies, foundations, corporations, and individuals. In 2012, we provided nearly $100 million in direct program support and distributed textbooks and other educational materials valued at over $30 million.