tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post817853185221339490..comments2023-08-23T16:00:00.292+01:00Comments on PPP Lusofonia: Eurozone crisis tests the Limits of DivergencePPP Lusofoniahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-40095853605273287622013-12-05T15:03:36.711+00:002013-12-05T15:03:36.711+00:00The Bundesbank is studying the lack of adjustment ...The Bundesbank is studying the lack of adjustment of external imbalences within the Eurozone. <br /><br />Lots of formulae, few insights. <br /><br />Divergence persists especially when banks are allowed to recycle the CAB surpluses with no down-side credit risks causing tsu-moneys into the defict/debtor countries. <br />This requires combined analysis of the current and capital accounts to see Persistent divergencehttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/12/05/1714032/bundesbank-so-about-those-current-account-issues/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-2522419030674610912012-07-23T22:12:44.905+01:002012-07-23T22:12:44.905+01:00...sharing a common currency enhances the volume o......sharing a common currency enhances the volume of bilateral trade among countries. However, the more economically dissimilar is an accession country, compared to the original members of a currency union, the smaller are the gains in trade that would follow the enlargement of a currency union.Albertinhttp://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/08-249.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-6628306182394382542012-06-22T16:11:35.627+01:002012-06-22T16:11:35.627+01:00Global current account imbalances bringing the pro...Global current account imbalances bringing the prospect of disorderly exchange rate adjustments and protectionism. But the imbalances in gross financial flows dwarf the net movements commonly associated with the current account, facilitating the transmission of shocks across borders. <br />Cross-border financing makes rapid credit growth possible even in the absence of domestic financing.<br />BIS on imbalanceshttp://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2011e3.htmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-68191669540163932632012-06-19T00:45:23.720+01:002012-06-19T00:45:23.720+01:00It's always good to check the numbers. Here ar...It's always good to check the numbers. Here are Germany's 2011 exports as reported on 8-Feb-12 by the BBC:<br />Total exports = EUR 1,050 bln (+11.4%)<br />non-EU = EUR 432.8 bln (+13,6%)<br />EU = EUR 627.3 bln (+9.9%)<br />Eurozone = EUR 420.9 bln (+8,6%)<br /><br />In the past,the Eurozone accounted for about 50% of the German trade surplus, which is UNSUSTAINABLE.German export recordhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16941142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-29138247231081457152012-06-15T10:15:28.146+01:002012-06-15T10:15:28.146+01:00Having had more than two years to cut the exposure...Having had more than two years to cut the exposures of over-extended British based banks to the over-leveraged periphery borrowers thanks to the substitute funding from the ECB, Cameron can now speak lightly about restisting the "crisis on our doorstep". <br /><br />That's what we call in Portuguese, "cantar de galo".PPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-30721668523784156082012-05-08T10:15:42.182+01:002012-05-08T10:15:42.182+01:00Overextended ceditor countries such as Germany and...Overextended ceditor countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are just as responsible for the excessive Eurozone debt crisis as the overleveraged borrowers such as Greece, Portugal or Ireland. It takes (at least) two to get into hock. There are no virgin borrowers, no debt by immaculate conception. <br />German, Dutch, French and British banks reached leverages of more than 50X lending the There is no debt by immaculate conceptionhttp://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/search/label/D%C3%ADvidanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-32894346653088928522012-04-15T03:30:04.741+01:002012-04-15T03:30:04.741+01:00It is more useful to understand the Eurozone crisi...It is more useful to understand the Eurozone crisis as a single trade and balance-of-payments crisis, since it helps to explain why the Euro is still sickly and what needs to be done to cure it. Shambaugh's "three crisis" can be better seen as consequences of the diverging trade imbabalances: surplus country banks overextended themselves lending to the net importing countries, PPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-79303326944673684822012-04-07T14:25:50.837+01:002012-04-07T14:25:50.837+01:00Dutch may be considering withdrawing from the Euro...Dutch may be considering withdrawing from the Euro? <br /><br />Maybe a CAB surplus of over 7% of GDP is not good enough.NL among top ten surplus countrieshttp://currentaccounts.newamerica.net/taxonomy/term/297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-1498660016406518082012-03-27T13:16:22.067+01:002012-03-27T13:16:22.067+01:001.Foolish overleveraged borrowers default all the ...1.Foolish overleveraged borrowers default all the time, whatever the currency.<br /><br />2. Foolish overextended creditors have to take losses all the time, whatever the currency.<br /><br />3. Foolish regulators (imprudent central banks) who allowed the credit bubble get so big it turned into a crash, some times have to help clean up the mess and taking a good portion of the loss for the PPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-15644779798076098732012-03-27T12:49:19.499+01:002012-03-27T12:49:19.499+01:00The immediate cause of the Greek debt crisis is th...The immediate cause of the Greek debt crisis is the divergence in the CAB surpluses and deficits among Eurozone members, reaching +8% of GDP in Germany and -13% of GDP in Greece (see my PPP Lusofonia blog post "Eurozone Tests the Limits of Divergence" http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.pt/2011/12/eurozone-crisis-tests-limits-of.html. Behind this, there are a lot of errors by a lot of PPP Lusofonianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-22357516869446158432012-03-17T10:48:56.649+00:002012-03-17T10:48:56.649+00:00Ver Alves e Barbosa, FEP 2011, sobre a divergencia...Ver Alves e Barbosa, FEP 2011, sobre a divergencia e competividade <br /><br /><a href="http://wps.fep.up.pt/wps/wp436.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://wps.fep.up.pt/wps/wp436.pdf</a>Divergence in the Eurozonehttp://wps.fep.up.pt/wps/wp436.pdfnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-48553167790665389612012-03-17T10:37:06.556+00:002012-03-17T10:37:06.556+00:00It all goes back to divergence of unit labor costs...It all goes back to divergence of unit labor costsDivergence in unit labor costshttp://mesharpe.metapress.com/app/home/contribution.asp?referrer=parent&backto=issue,4,8;journal,12,38;linkingpublicationresults,1:109348,1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-55772884205388616722012-03-14T19:07:11.040+00:002012-03-14T19:07:11.040+00:00Sim, o nosso principal problema é o défice externo...Sim, o nosso principal problema é o défice externo. O nosso défice comercial não poderá reduzir-se enquanto não se reduzir o superavit comercial dos nossos parceiros, como pode ver no blog PPP Lusofonia <a href="http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurozone-crisis-tests-limits-of.html" rel="nofollow">http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurozone-crisis-tests-limits-of.html</a><br /><br Do lado de láhttp://outramargem-alf.blogspot.com/2012/01/como-deixamos-de-ser-lixo.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-61559920941992107182012-03-12T22:25:19.560+00:002012-03-12T22:25:19.560+00:00Portugal's cumulative trade deficit over the ...Portugal's cumulative trade deficit over the last 18 years, assuiming an interest rate of only 3%, accounts for €367 billion in external debt. <br /><br />Se somarmos o défice comercial acumulado nos últimos 18 anos, entre Jan1993 e Mar2011, capitalizado à taxa de juro de 3%/ano, soma 367Mil Milhões de EurosImport financing feeds debthttp://economicofinanceiro.blogspot.com/2011/06/o-defice-comercial-e-doenca-que-leva.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-10336146936888169742012-03-01T00:41:30.079+00:002012-03-01T00:41:30.079+00:00Greece's agriculture trade flows were substant...Greece's agriculture trade flows were substantially affected <br />as a result of the application of the CAP. The new regime brough about a substantial trade diversion and a shift of imports from third countries to EU <br />countries. This reorientation was associated with higher import prices, which contributed to the trade deficits. <br />Thus, Greece had traditionally a positive Greece ag trade diversionhttp://www.balcannet.eu/papers_grecia/Baltas_Nicholas.pdfnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-64276370419583853892012-02-17T11:02:16.470+00:002012-02-17T11:02:16.470+00:00A discussão de correlação versus causalidade é mui...A discussão de correlação versus causalidade é muito importante, mas acho que seria bem mais fácil provar que foi a entrada de Portugal no Euro que CAUSOU o aumento do número de desempregados e na dívida (pública) externa, do que o contrário.<br />E também é necessário examinar a causalidade entre o défice (de comércio) externo e o défice (orçamental) interno.<br /><br />Bastava um pouco de tempoCorrelação versus Causalidadehttps://10envolver.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/cuidado-nem-tudo-o-que-parece-e/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-16986084321789182372012-02-14T22:52:55.158+00:002012-02-14T22:52:55.158+00:00There are other places where we see similar diverg...There are other places where we see similar diverging current accounts. For many decades we saw it between the Western world and the developing countries. It is also visible between the northern and southern parts of Italy. <br /><br />It has something to do with power that comes from being a creditor and is used to force the debtor to follow policies that harm his trade balance.Wim Roffelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05950733237377413606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-12506564790687731602012-02-14T21:23:00.529+00:002012-02-14T21:23:00.529+00:00The heavily indebted countries are now at a severe...The heavily indebted countries are now at a severe disadvantage, because they have basically become heavily indebted in a foreign currency, the euro. <br />They do not control it, and so they are in the same position as third world countries in Latin America were in at the beginning of the 1980s, where the countries became indebted in dollars. It was a situation that led to a lost decade there. Poliicy failure on the part of Europehttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,814920-2,00.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-76946570842022708202012-02-08T21:11:20.705+00:002012-02-08T21:11:20.705+00:00Meanwhile Germany's exports in 2011 were over ...Meanwhile Germany's exports in 2011 were over €1 trillion for the first time - exports to Russia up 30% for example. Now there's apparently a Master Plan how to deal with Chinese competition.<br /><br />P.S. The Swiss watch industry is ticking over nicely too :-) with an alltime record year in 2011. It's all about (s)ticking to your knitting.German export recordnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-70357252182703807712012-02-07T23:19:35.637+00:002012-02-07T23:19:35.637+00:00In short, the eurozone's periphery is now subj...In short, the eurozone's periphery is now subject to the paradox of thrift: increasing savings too much, too fast leads to renewed recession and makes debts even more unsustainable. And that paradox is now affecting even the core.Roubini on the paradox of thrifthttp://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini44/English?utm_campaign=Feed:+TheMoneyGame+(The+Money+Game)&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-90107373317722445492012-02-04T00:08:48.667+00:002012-02-04T00:08:48.667+00:00The euro had other deficiencies of which its archi...The euro had other deficiencies of which its architects were unaware. They laboured under the misconception that financial markets can correct their own excesses, so the rules were designed to rein in only public-sector excesses. And, even there, they relied too heavily on self-policing by sovereign states.<br /><br />But the excesses were mainly in the private sector, as interest-rate EU failureshttp://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-news/the-european-union-catalogue-of-failures.18-07.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-24404713248376805982012-02-01T10:19:21.399+00:002012-02-01T10:19:21.399+00:00Recycling petrodollars, Eurozone edition:
The mi...Recycling petrodollars, Eurozone edition: <br /><br />The mispricing of sovereign risk has a lot to do with excess liquidity and imprudent central bank regulation, allowing banks to become too overleveraged. <br />And the excess liquidity comes from looming and diverging CAB deficit/surpluses, as it did when the OPEC surpluses of the 1970's fed the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s. <PPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-4379408220757778932012-01-20T09:12:37.308+00:002012-01-20T09:12:37.308+00:00Em 2010, Portugal reportou um superavit de 24 M€ c...Em 2010, Portugal reportou um superavit de 24 M€ com a França, o nossoo 3º parceiro comercial (como cliente e fornecedor). <br /><br />Exportações de Portugal para França: 4,209 mil milhões €<br />Importações de França para Portugal: 4,185 mil milhões de €<br />Saldo positivo a favor de Portugal de 24 milhões €. <br /><br />Portugal era em 2010 o 18º cliente e 21º fornecedor da França.<br /><brComércio bilateral PT- FRhttp://www.ambafrance-pt.org/Generalidades,1462noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-33020206211624605592012-01-16T09:12:53.050+00:002012-01-16T09:12:53.050+00:00Portugal está viciado em importações, tem uma cul...Portugal está viciado em importações, tem uma cultura de comprador e falta-nos uma cultura de vendedor. <br />O Guia do Exportador do AICEP começa com uma justificação de "porquê exportar". <br />A Alemanha é a maior economia da Europa e não se ensina alemão nas escolas secundárias ...PPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24016165.post-290799208725338182012-01-15T21:32:02.632+00:002012-01-15T21:32:02.632+00:00FT Alphaville's article of 15-Dec-2011, shows ...FT Alphaville's article of 15-Dec-2011, shows the level net external asset/liability position of a number of countries, see <br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/15/802081/its-the-balance-of-payments-stupid/" rel="nofollow">http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/15/802081/its-the-balance-of-payments-stupid/</a> <br /><br />They also quote Carney, a former central banker of PPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.com